A Framework for Analyzing Electricity Prices and Support Programs to Develop Renewable Electricity by Considering Competition and Uncertainty

نوع: Type: thesis

مقطع: Segment: PHD

عنوان: Title: A Framework for Analyzing Electricity Prices and Support Programs to Develop Renewable Electricity by Considering Competition and Uncertainty

ارائه دهنده: Provider: Fateme Dianat

اساتید راهنما: Supervisors: Dr. Vahid Khodakarami

اساتید مشاور: Advisory Professors: Dr. Seyed Hossein Hosseini, Dr. Hamed Shakouri G

اساتید ممتحن یا داور: Examining professors or referees: Dr. Azizollah Memariani, Dr. Mohsen Akbarpour Shirazi

زمان و تاریخ ارائه: Time and date of presentation: october 2022

مکان ارائه: Place of presentation: amphitheater

چکیده: Abstract: Renewable energies are very desirable in developed countries, since they use clean and stable sources, they are not dependent on fossil fuels and they do not pollute the environment, and efforts are being made to increase the share of renewable energies in the electricity industry of these countries. This research tries to investigate solutions for the development of the renewable electricity industry. The requirement for the sustainable development of any industry, apart from external support such as government support, is financial incentives and profitability, which is determined in the market of that industry. In the course of its growth, the electricity market has been restructured due to some factors such as increasing productivity, breaking monopoly, competitiveness and increasing attention to environmental issues. Renewable energies also need to enter the competitive electricity market for permanent and sustainable income generation and profitability, and they must be able to compete with other electricity generation methods. Due to its renewable nature, this industry is full of uncertainties. These uncertainties appear in a specific way according to the type of energy; for example, in solar electric energy, the number of sunny days in a year and the intensity of sunlight. For wind energy, the speed of the wind, for water energy, the speed of water and the intensity of flowing water can be considered sources of uncertainty in the generation of these energies. The goal of this research is to answer how and with what strategy and with what support plans such as tax or subsidy, the renewable electricity industry, despite the uncertainties of this industry, can play its role in the electricity market in order to generate income and profitability. In this regard, there is a need to understand the mechanism of the electricity market, understand how renewable electricity is produced, environmental requirements, existing protective laws and such issues. In this research, we are looking for a framework that can examine these factors. What model is suitable for modeling the uncertainty of this industry and what model is used to simulate the competition between renewable and conventional energy and how and in what way renewable electricity development strategies can be extracted and how environmental requirements are included in the model and in renewable electricity development, what variables are influential and such questions are among the questions that this study tries to answer with the aim of promoting this industry. In this regard, a comprehensive framework has been developed by integrating system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling logic, and game theory concepts. This systemic modeling procedure has several advantages, including formation of a macro policymaking perspective, the analysis of renewable electricity development trends, and the simulation of competitors' and investors' reactions and decisions. Model validation showed its great precision. Besides, the simulation results indicated that establishing a competitive market and enacting targeted support policies could stimulate the development of renewable electricity up to the year 2060. A presumed combined policy based on efficient simulated scenarios could increase renewable electricity capacity and market share 5-fold and 6-fold by 2035, respectively. Also, it could improve capacity and market share 8-fold and 10-fold by 2060, respectively

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